Weather Forecast Accuracy
Posted: Sun 11 Jun 2023 5:25 pm
The weather forecasters often get critical comment when the actual weather doesn't pan out the way it was forecast. However I am amazed how often their longer term forecast is pretty well on the mark. We've had 21 days of "no rain". For over a week now the forecast has been for rain on the weekend, and looks like they will be right (but still waiting).
I have a little script that shows the WU 5 day forecast for my station location and I enter that in a Facebook template that keeps those daily forecasts and I also add the actual weather information from my weather station on that day, so 5 days of forecasts to actual comparison:
While I have seen major difference in actual weather conditions compared to the forecast made 3, 4, or 5 days ago, generally it is quite accurate.
Enjoy,
Paul
I have a little script that shows the WU 5 day forecast for my station location and I enter that in a Facebook template that keeps those daily forecasts and I also add the actual weather information from my weather station on that day, so 5 days of forecasts to actual comparison:
Code: Select all
The 5-day Forecast for London/Middlesex, Ontario, Canada
Made on Sunday for: Thursday - Mix of sun and clouds. Highs 20 to 22C and lows 8 to 10C.
Made on Monday for: Thursday - More clouds than sun. Highs 19 to 21C and lows 8 to 10C.
Made on Tuesday for: Thursday - Considerable cloudiness. Highs 18 to 20C and lows 7 to 9C.
Made on Wednesday for: Thursday - More clouds than sun. Highs 17 to 19C and lows 7 to 9C.
Made on Thursday for: Thursday - Showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 18 to 20C and lows 6 to 8C.
Actual... Thursday - Partly sunny, 4.7 hrs sunshine. High 21.3°C and Low 10.2°C. Mostly calm, wind gust 32.1 km/h, and 73.2 km wind run.
The 5-day Forecast for London/Middlesex, Ontario, Canada
Made on Sunday for: Friday - Partly cloudy. Highs 23 to 25C and lows 10 to 12C.
Made on Monday for: Friday - Times of sun and clouds. Highs 21 to 23C and lows 9 to 11C.
Made on Tuesday for: Friday - Times of sun and clouds. Highs 21 to 23C and lows 8 to 10C.
Made on Wednesday for: Friday - Partly cloudy. Highs 21 to 23C and lows 9 to 11C.
Made on Thursday for: Friday - Times of sun and clouds. Highs 21 to 23C and lows 8 to 10C.
Made on Friday for: Friday - Cloudy. Highs 21 to 23C and lows 8 to 10C.
Actual... Friday - Mostly sunny, 11.6 hrs sunshine. High 23.9°C and Low 9.0°C. Wind gust 32.1 km/h, and 95.9 km wind run.
The 5-day Forecast for London/Middlesex, Ontario, Canada
Made on Monday for: Saturday - Mix of sun and clouds. Highs 24 to 26C and lows 12 to 14C.
Made on Tuesday for: Saturday - Considerable cloudiness. Highs 23 to 25C and lows 12 to 14C.
Made on Wednesday for: Saturday - Mix of sun and clouds. Highs 26 to 28C and lows 12 to 14C.
Made on Thursday for: Saturday - Mix of sun and clouds. Highs 25 to 27C and lows 13 to 15C.
Made on Friday for: Saturday - Partly cloudy. Highs 25 to 27C and lows 13 to 15C.
Made on Saturday for: Saturday - Morning clouds followed by afternoon sun. Highs 25 to 27C and lows 13 to 15C.
Actual... Saturday - Mix of sun and clouds, 6.8 hrs sunshine. High 28.1°C and Low 7.8°C. Mostly calm, 27.8 km/h high wind gust, and 69.9 km wind run.
Made on Tuesday for: Sunday - Chance of showers. Highs 21 to 23C and lows 11 to 13C.
Made on Wednesday for: Sunday - Showers possible. Highs 24 to 26C and lows 13 to 15C.
Made on Thursday for: Sunday - Chance of afternoon showers. Highs 24 to 26C and lows 13 to 15C.
Made on Friday for: Sunday - Showers. Highs 22 to 24C and lows 12 to 14C.
Made on Saturday for: Sunday - Mainly cloudy and rainy. Highs 20 to 22C and lows 10 to 12C.
Made on Sunday for: Sunday - Light rain. Highs 22 to 24C and lows 13 to 15C.
Made on Wednesday for: Monday - Showers possible. Highs 20 to 22C and lows 11 to 13C.
Made on Thursday for: Monday - Showers. Highs 20 to 22C and lows 10 to 12C.
Made on Friday for: Monday - Showers possible. Highs 18 to 20C and lows 9 to 11C.
Made on Saturday for: Monday - Morning light rain. Highs 15 to 17C and lows 9 to 11C.
Made on Sunday for: Monday - Light rain early. Highs 16 to 18C and lows 7 to 9C.
Enjoy,
Paul